Bank of Canada rate hike to 2.50%, first increase since July 2023

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Wednesday, its first increase since July 2023 and the end of a seven-meeting holding streak. The widely expected move — forecast earlier in the week — makes Canada’s central bank the latest to move against resurgent price pressures.

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Governor Tiff Macklem struck a hawkish tone, warning that “further increases might be needed to prevent soaring energy costs from fueling broader inflation.” The bank sharply raised its inflation forecast for 2027 to 3.1%, up from 2.0% in its July projection, acknowledging that price pressures are proving far more stubborn than anticipated.

The data back up the caution. Inflation ran at 3.2% in September, the bank expects it to reach around 3.5% by the end of 2026, and it does not foresee a return near the 2% target until mid-2028. Meanwhile the labor market is weakening: the economy shed 110,000 jobs in just two months, leaving policymakers balancing hot inflation against cooling employment.

Markets will now watch the December 9 decision for the next signal. With the bank openly keeping the door to further hikes ajar, Canadian borrowers should expect borrowing costs to stay elevated — and possibly rise again — deep into next year.

Read also: Bank of Canada expected to hike rate to 2.50% and US and Canada in talks to ease steel and auto tariffs