The Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and economists widely expect a 25-basis-point hike, according to Reuters reports on October 23 and 26, 2026.
A Reuters poll of 34 economists conducted on October 21-23 found 19 of 34, or 56%, expect the overnight rate to rise from 2.25% to 2.50% on October 28, with one more hike by the end of March 2027. If it happens, it would be the first rate hike since July 2023 and the first change in the policy rate in a year, after the rate was held at 2.25% since the October 2025 cut.
Annual inflation rose to 3.1% in September 2026, driven almost entirely by energy, including gasoline and diesel prices, just above the Bank’s 1% to 3% target range, while core measures excluding volatile items eased below 2%, the midpoint of the target. Market pricing moved from about a 30% chance of an October hike to around 75%, with one summary putting the odds at about 85%, after Governor Tiff Macklem’s remarks.
Macklem signalled at International Monetary Fund meetings in Bangkok earlier in October that the Bank was “ready to act” if inflation stays high, and said quarterly inflation forecasts due next week would likely be revised higher. The Bank’s latest business and consumer surveys showed sharply rising inflation expectations, cited by Desjardins’ Royce Mendes and BMO chief economist Doug Porter as the reason many economists flipped from “hold” to “hike.” The counterweight is a weakening economy: third-quarter growth is expected to be substantially lower than in the second quarter, September jobs data showed job losses and unemployment at 6.5%, and a hike would raise borrowing costs for households and businesses. This is a forecast, not a decision: the hike has not happened yet, and the split among forecasters includes TD leaning towards holding and Capital Economics calling it a close call, so unanimity is not claimed.
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Bhudev Bhagaliya is an experienced and senior journalist who has carved a distinct niche for himself in the world of Hindi journalism through his profound understanding and precise writing style. With over two decades of experience in the field of journalism, he has held key responsibilities at Dainik Hindustan for 12 years and at Amar Ujala for one year. Currently, he serves as the Content Editor for the Jagrook Youth News newspaper and portal, where he plays a crucial role in ensuring the quality and credibility of the news content. Bhudev Bhagaliya consistently writes about issues that help raise awareness within society and among the younger generation.