Australian mortgage holders should brace for more pain: the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise the cash rate to 4.85% next week — the fifth increase of 2026. The forecast comes from the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research at the University of Melbourne, announced October 30.
The RBA board meets on Tuesday, November 3 — Melbourne Cup Day — with the decision due at 2:30pm AEDT. At 4.85%, the cash rate would be the highest since 2008. The rate currently sits at 4.60% after four 2026 hikes on February 3, March 17, May 5 and September 29.
Inflation data explains the pressure. Headline CPI rose 4.3% in the year to September, up from 4.0% in August, while annual trimmed mean inflation hit 3.7% — well above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. All four major banks now forecast a November hike, with CommBank putting market pricing at around 90%. Governor Michele Bullock said this week that risks flagged in the August forecasts had materialised, and deputy governor Andrew Hauser earlier called the inflation outlook “materially worse” than projected.
The impact on borrowers is real. A 25-basis-point move adds about $92 a month to repayments on a $600,000 loan, and the five 2026 hikes together total roughly $456 a month extra, according to a Canstar illustration. For households already stretched, Tuesday’s decision will be watched as closely as the race itself — and savers, meanwhile, will be hoping term-deposit rates finally catch up. Either way, Cup Day is shaping up as the most consequential rate call of the year.
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Bhudev Bhagaliya is an experienced and senior journalist who has carved a distinct niche for himself in the world of Hindi journalism through his profound understanding and precise writing style. With over two decades of experience in the field of journalism, he has held key responsibilities at Dainik Hindustan for 12 years and at Amar Ujala for one year. Currently, he serves as the Content Editor for the Jagrook Youth News newspaper and portal, where he plays a crucial role in ensuring the quality and credibility of the news content. Bhudev Bhagaliya consistently writes about issues that help raise awareness within society and among the younger generation.